Messages In This Digest (3 Messages)

1.: Membantah Kiamat 2012 --> Fw: Sunspot cycle beginning to rise From: Ma'rufin Sudibyo

2a.: Re: Solidaritas fisikawan From: Asis Pattisahusiwa
2b.: Re: Solidaritas fisikawan From: Suharyo Sumowidagdo

Messages

1.: Membantah Kiamat 2012 --> Fw: Sunspot cycle beginning to rise

Posted by: "Ma'rufin Sudibyo" marufins@yahoo.com marufins

Tue May 12, 2009 12:46 am (PDT)

Berlawanan dengan heboh Kiamat 2012, ternyata prediksi siklus aktivitas Matahari terkini yang bakalan mencapai puncaknya pada Mei 2013 mendatang justru mungkin merupakan yang terlemah sejak 1928.

Silahkan dibaca lebih lanjut di bawah ini.

Salam,

Ma'rufin

----- Forwarded Message ----
From: "robert-blau@webtv.net" <robert-blau@webtv.net>
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2009 11:10:12 AM
Subject: [Geology2] Sunspot cycle beginning to rise

Sunspot cycle beginning to rise

Busier sunspot cycle may affect satellites, electrical systems

By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer FriÂ MayÂ 8,
3:31Â pmÂ ET

WASHINGTON â€" When the sun sneezes it's Earth that gets sick. It's
time for the sun to move into a busier period for sunspots, and while
forecasters expect a relatively mild outbreak by historical standards,
one major solar storm can cause havoc with satellites and electrical
systems here.

Like hurricanes, a weak cycle refers to the number of storms, but it
only takes one powerful storm to create chaos, said scientist Doug
Biesecker of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration' s space
weather prediction center.

A report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm as
severe as one in 1859 occurred today, it could cause $1 trillion to $2
trillion in damage the first year and take four to 10 years to recover.

The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North
America and Europe, sent readings of Earth's magnetic field soaring, and
produced northern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their
light.

Today there's a lot more than telegraph lines at stake. Vulnerable
electrical grids circle the globe, satellites now vital for all forms of
communications can be severely disrupted along with the global
positioning system. Indeed, the panel warned that a strong blast of
solar wind can threaten national security, transportation, financial
services and other essential functions.

The solar prediction center works closely with industry and government
agencies to make sure they are prepared with changes in activity and
prepared to respond when damage occurs, Biesecker said in a briefing.

While the most extreme events seem unlikely this time, there will
probably be smaller scale disruptions to electrical service, airline
flights, GPS signals and television, radio and cell phones.

On the plus side, the solar storms promote the colorful auroras, known
as the northern and southern lights, high in the sky over polar areas.

An international panel headed by Biesecker said Friday it expects the
upcoming solar cycle to be the weakest since 1928.

The prediction calls for the solar cycle to peak in May 2013 with 90
sunspots per day, averaged over a month. If the prediction proves
correct it will be the weakest cycle since a peak of 78 daily sunspots
in 1928.

Measurement of sunspot cycles began in the 1750s.

The panel described solar storms as eruptions of energy and matter that
escape from the sun. At least some of this heads toward the Earth.

Solar cycles of more and fewer sunspots last several years and the cycle
currently building up will be number 24 since counting began.

It's only the third time researchers have tried to make such a forecast.
In 1989 a panel predicted Cycle 22, which peaked that year. And in 1996
scientists predicted Cycle 23.

Both earlier groups did better at predicting timing than intensity,
according to Biesecker.

The last solar minimum occurred in December, the researchers said.

W. Dean Pesnell of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
said the forecasts are based on such indicators as the strength of the
sun's magnetic field at the poles and the reaction of the Earth's
magnetic field to the sun. Both are weak right now, he said, with only a
few sunspots visible since 2007.

A preliminary forecast issued in 2007 was split over the outlook for the
upcoming cycle, Biesecker said the researchers have now reached
consensus.
___
On the Net:
NOAA: http://www.noaa. gov
NASA: http://www.nasa. gov

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2a.: Re: Solidaritas fisikawan

Posted by: "Asis Pattisahusiwa" asisphysic04@gmail.com aziz_physic04

Tue May 12, 2009 3:01 am (PDT)

Apakah contoh seperti ini pernah terjadi di Indonesia ya...?

Pada tanggal 12/05/09, Suharyo Sumowidagdo <sumowidagdo@gmail.com> menulis:
> Sedikit cerita tentang solidaritas fisikawan, kita semua bisa belajar dari
> kisah ini.
>
> Pada hari Kamis (7 Mei) lalu, Menteri Negara Riset Austria, Johannes Hahn,
> mengumumkan niat negara Austria untuk mengundurkan diri dari keanggotaan
> CERN pasca tahun 2010. Detail dari segala argumen pro/kontra tindakan
> tersebut bisa anda baca di banyak website berita (Google keyword: Austria
> quit CERN).
>
> Lepas dari segala detail tentang keputusan tersebut, yang membuat saya
> terkesan adalah betapa cepatnya komunitas fisika partikel bereaksi terhadap
> keputusan ini. Pada hari Senin ini, tercatat:
>
> 1. Institut Fisika Partikel di Austria membuka petisi online, dan dalam
> waktu beberapa hari saja, sekitar 2500-an orang, menandatangani petisi
> online memprotes keputusan tersebut.
>
> 2. Beberapa pemenang Hadiah Nobel Fisika sudah menyuarakan keprihatinannya
> atas hal ini, dan mengingatkan bahwa keputusan ini bertentangan dengan
> tradisi fisika Austria yang dibangun oleh Boltzmann, Pauli, Schrodinger,
> Meitner, Weisskopf, dan Hess.
>
> 3. Direktur Jenderal CERN dan Asisten Direktur (yang kebetulan berkebangsaan
> Austria) menemui Menteri Riset Austria *hari ini juga* untuk meminta
> keputusan tersebut ditinjau kembali.
>
> 4. Bahkan sebuah group di Facebook (!) dibuka untuk menghimpun suara-suara
> keprihatinan para fisikawan, dan saat ini sudah menghimpun 700 lebih
> anggota.
>
> Sangat mengagumkan bahwa semuanya terjadi hanya dalam beberapa hari saja
> (kurang dari empat hari). Jumlah fisikawan partikel asal Austria saat ini
> berkisar pada jumlah 200 orang, jadi sangat jelas bahwa dukungan fisikawan
> non-Austria sangar besar baik di petisi online maupun di Facebook. Contoh
> nyata solidaritas yang bisa ditiru fisikawan Indonesia.
>
>
>
> Haryo
>
>
>

--
Asis Pattisahusiwa

Jurusan Fisika, F. MIPA, Universitas Pattimura - Ambon

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2b.: Re: Solidaritas fisikawan

Posted by: "Suharyo Sumowidagdo" sumowidagdo@gmail.com haryo_hep

Tue May 12, 2009 6:09 am (PDT)

--- In fisika_indonesia@yahoogroups.com, Asis Pattisahusiwa <asisphysic04@...> wrote:
>
> Apakah contoh seperti ini pernah terjadi di Indonesia ya...?

Untuk bidang iptek belum pernah, karena Indonesia belum terlibat dalam megaproyek internasional dalam skala seperti LHC.

Analog yang paling dekat mungkin adalah kalau *misalnya* Lembaga Eijkman atau Kebun Raya Bogor atau Observatorium Bosscha ditutup ! Bosscha sekarang saya dengar-dengar sangat terancam dengan polusi cahaya dari pembangunan real estate di Lembang.

Haryo

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